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We have maintained our S&P 500 Index year-end fair value target of 3,000, even after the index broached that target September 17.

There’s a growing pile of negative-yielding debt around the world amid extraordinary monetary policy initiatives.

Equities continued to rise this week, sending the S&P 500 Index back over the 3,000 level and near its record high of 3,027.98 set July 26.

U.S. economic data was mixed in August, reflecting the complicated macro economic environment in the midst of high trade uncertainty.

Equities rose during the holiday-shortened week as investors digested several geopolitical and trade headlines alongside a mixed batch of key economic data.

We lowered our 2019 earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500 Index on August 19 due to increased risk to economic growth and corporate profits from the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China. Until we get clarity on trade, we believe earnings will likely continue to grow but only modestly.

Fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain solid even as trade uncertainty weighs on investor sentiment.

We recently reduced our year-end forecast range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 2.5–2.75% to 1.75–2%. This significant reduction reflects what we consider the many somewhat curious aspects of the domestic and global macroeconomic environments. Trade uncertainty, low inflation, geopolitical risks, monetary policy, and relative valuation all played a role in our decision. To …

Continue reading “U.S. Treasuries and the Yield Curve | Weekly Market Commentary | September 3, 2019”

Equities investors endured another volatile week, book-ended by positive trade vibes Monday, August 19, only to be thrust into negative territory Friday, August 23.

We have lowered our projections for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and operating earnings for the S&P 500 Index in 2019, as we noted in the August 19 Weekly Market Commentary: Tweaking Forecasts, and introduced our preliminary 2020 forecasts.